The Big Autum Chill

Other

If you're in the NYC area, before you prepare yourself to go outdoors, be aware of the first seasonal The Big Chill.

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NY...NORTHEASTERN NJ AND
SOUTHERN CT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHEAST...PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE 20S AND 30S THIS
MORNING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S IN NEW YORK CITY.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY WILL BRING THE START OF A WARMING TREND AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH.

The Big Chill Soundtrack
https://youtu.be/Oy625sZAHN8?list=PLTbM4s2Vnewnmd-ft9Rir-hVo8FzseyZ8

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today favoring cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier. This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter. However, the frequency, number and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale.”

Precipitation.
Precipitation - U.S. Winter Outlook: 2015-2016
(Credit: NOAA)
Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor'easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

The 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation Outlook:

Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska.

Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature Outlook:

Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

Drought Outlook:

The U.S. Drought Outlook shows some improvement is likely in central and southern California by the end of January, but not drought removal. Additional statewide relief is possible during February and March. Drought removal is likely across large parts of the Southwest, while improvement or removal is also likely in the southern Plains. However, drought is likely to persist in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with drought development likely in Hawaii, parts of the northern Plains and in the northern Great Lakes region.

While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for California, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought,” said Halpert. “California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought and that's unlikely.”

NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what's likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather's impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with actionable forecasts and winter weather tips is key to NOAA’s effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation.

This is the season of the year between summer and winter, during which the weather becomes cooler and many plants become dormant, extending in the Northern Hemisphere from the autumnal equinox to the winter solstice and popularly considered to include the months of September, October, and November; fall. In the Southern Hemisphere autumn includes March, April, and May.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook 2015-2016 https://youtu.be/9yZiYtoezlY via @YouTube