El Nino has emerged, according to scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
In the monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, which occurs on average every 2-7 years. El Nino’s impacts on the climate extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
"Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," said Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center. "Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures”
The U.S. is weak during the summer and more pronounced starting in the late fall through spring. By winter, there is an 84 percent chance of greater than a moderate strength El Nino, and a 56 percent chance of a strong El Nino developing. Typically, moderate to strong El Nino conditions during the fall and winter result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Nino winters also bring better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the country.
A single El Nino event will not result in all of these impacts, but El Nino increases the odds of them occurring.
The anticipated persistence of El Nino also contributed to the 2023 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlooks issued by NOAA last month. El Nino conditions usually help to suppress Atlantic Hurricane activity, while the presence of El Nino typically favors strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
The Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will continue to take into account current and forecasted El Nino conditions.
El Niño brings death in northeastern India as it continues to rise, with reports saying nearly 170 people have died from heat-related illnesses caused by an intense heat wave.
The 113 degrees Fahrenheit heatwave, has brought power outages compounding the issue, prompting the government to call for electricity conservation measures—only 12% of India's population of 1.4 billion people have air conditioning and many units are often inadequate.
Authorities are also investigating alternative potential causes of the deaths as many symptoms deviate from the usual signs of heat-related illness, and many of the victims are over the age of 60 with preexisting conditions. One possibility being explored is water contamination; India frequently faces severe water shortages during heat waves, leaving tens of millions without access to running water.
Increasing heat waves have overwhelmed the country in recent years, including an incident in May that claimed the lives of 13 people in western India. Additionally, Asia experienced its hottest April on record.