RUSSIA LOSING THE UKRAINE WAR AND MORE CONSIDER IT SELF-INFLICTED WOUNDS
Mark down June 25, 2023, as the critical turning point in the war of aggression launched by Russia against Ukraine.
The signs were there for weeks, but it was still a shock to see Vladimir Putin’s private army— the Wagner Group— stage a coup against the Kremlin, seizing the Russian military headquarters that commands the entire Ukrainian war.
Without a shot being fired to resist.
Most of what shooting did take place was by Wagner forces downing helicopters and a plane as they drove toward Moscow, virtually unhindered on the highway. But then they turned back. Why remains unclear.
In a move sure to cripple, if not end, his future as ruler of Russia, Putin allowed coup leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin to flee to nearby Belorussia with a promise of no criminal actions against him or his men.
Prigozhin will not be alive in a year. Promises Promises. Can’t spend them, can’t believe them.
Russian illusions about Putin’s invincibility are no longer operative. Will Putin outlive his former chef and protege? Who knows?
What happens in Russia could take months, if not years, to play out.
My friend and former colleague Walter Rodgers was Moscow Bureau Chief for ABC News for several years. He tells me that Peter the Great, the Russian leader in the late 17th century, once said, “Russia is a place where things that CAN NEVER happen, happen.”
Anton Gerashchenko is an advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. He founded the Institute of the Future, an enemy of Russian propaganda. He says, “A vertical of power has collapsed. No one in Russia can feel safe anymore. Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life. Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday. It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.”
“Russia might be facing a bloody war,” says Gerashcenko, “not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups, and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin's supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders. All large businesses and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven't already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself. Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force. It will be the new 90s but far worse - Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie.”
On Saturday, Putin’s short televised address felt panicked, vowing punishment for Prigozhin for his “betrayal” and executing a “stab in the back” against the Russian people.
A day later, it was safe passage to Belorussia and no punishment. Nothing like this has happened before in Putin’s reign.
Prigozhin is an All of this informationPutin-created oligarch upon whom the state showered riches and whose Wagner troops carried out dangerous missions in Africa and elsewhere. What happens now to that element of Russian foreign involvement?
In some fashion, this information has reached Russian soldiers fighting inside Ukraine. An already demoralized and under-resourced Russian military is not likely to be a potent fighting force against Ukrainians, who have demonstrated a superior sense of tactics in pushing Russia back toward its borders for more than a year.
Optimism: Crimea will be back in Ukrainian hands by October.
Pessimism: A Russia savaged by an internal war between regions and clans makes the world less safe. If Unclear, think Nuclear.
By: Kenneth Tiven
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