Fasten your seatbelts folks. Why is turbulence increasing? Rougher skies may be from climate change, scientists begin to cry out.
Prepare for the possibility of more shake, rattle, and roll with bumping on your next flight, a study by scientists at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is hazardous to aircraft and is projected to intensify in response to future climate change. However, our understanding of past CAT trends is currently limited, being derived largely from outdated reanalysis data. Here we analyze CAT trends globally during 1979–2020 in a modern reanalysis data set using 21 diagnostics. We find clear evidence of large increases around the midlatitudes at aircraft cruising altitudes. For example, at an average point over the North Atlantic, the total annual duration of light or greater CAT increased by 17% from 466.5 hr in 1979 to 546.8 hr in 2020, with even larger relative changes for moderate or greater CAT (increasing by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hr) and severe-or-greater CAT (increasing by 55% from 17.7 to 27.4 hr). Similar increases are also found over the continental USA. Our study represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades.
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Clear-air turbulence diagnosed from reanalysis data has increased over the satellite era
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The increases are largest over the #USA and North Atlantic, which are both busy flight regions
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Severe-or-greater CAT increased the most, becoming 55 percent more frequent in 2020 than in 1979
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL103814
https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/07/18/flight-turbulence-ri…