The Wall Street Journal's Editorial Board points out how Trump’s interventions can undermine GOP efforts, specifically his role in influencing Senator Thom Tillis’s decision to retire.
His influence continues to shape and sometimes complicate Republican Senate races:
Candidate Endorsements and Primary Challenges
Trump’s endorsements remain a powerful force in GOP primaries. Candidates seen as loyal to Trump often gain early momentum, campaign donations, and media attention. However, this influence can be a double-edged sword:
- In safe Republican districts, a Trump endorsement can virtually ensure victory.
- In swing or moderate districts, it can backfire by alienating independents and moderate Republicans, making general election wins more difficult.
Party Cohesion and Internal Fractures
Trump’s pressure on GOP lawmakers such as threatening primary challengers has deepened ideological divides within the party:
- Leaders like Senate Majority Leader John Thune have tried to unify the caucus and pass legislation, but Trump’s interventions can derail these efforts.
- The editorial’s mention of Senator Thom Tillis's retirement reflects how Trump’s influence may push away traditional conservatives who feel politically cornered or out of step with the party's new direction.
Impact on Fundraising and Messaging
Trump can redirect donor attention and energy toward candidates he supports, often bypassing the traditional party fundraising apparatus. This:
- Undermines Senate GOP leaders’ coordinated efforts to support a unified slate.
- Shifts campaign messaging from broader GOP platforms to more Trump-centric themes.
Legislative Strategy Disruption
When GOP leaders try to broker bipartisan deals (e.g., on immigration, infrastructure, or defense), Trump has occasionally intervened publicly, denouncing the deals or threatening retaliation. This:
- Creates uncertainty and undermines negotiations.
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Can lead senators to abandon support for bills they previously backed, out of fear of political retribution.
Electoral Consequences
Historically, Trump-aligned candidates have had mixed success in general elections:
- 2022 midterms: Several Trump-endorsed Senate candidates lost in competitive races (e.g., Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania), contributing to the GOP’s underperformance.
- 2024/2025 outlook: If Trump continues to influence candidate selection, the GOP may face similar challenges balancing primary wins with general election viability.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-puts-the-senate-in-play-in-2026-83b84…