The Islamic Republic is under its most severe pressure since 1979, but it has not yet fallen, and its machinery is operational.
The Regime Is Deeply Weakened
Beginning on 28 December 2025, demonstrations erupted across multiple cities in Iran, described as the largest uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution itself. Wikipedia
Initially sparked by frustration over record-high inflation, food prices, and currency depreciation, the protests quickly evolved into a broader movement demanding an end to the Islamic government. Wikipedia
The crises are stacking on top of each other:
- Military defeat: After October 7, 2023, Israel dismantled Iran's regional strategy piece by piece — destroying Hamas in Gaza, massively degrading Hezbollah in Lebanon, and collapsing Iran's Syrian support. Then in June 2025, a 12-day war struck Iran directly, destroying key elements of its air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear infrastructure. Hudson Institute
- Economic collapse: The Islamic Republic could stabilize its economy at a new, lower level of performance, but there is little it can do over the next few months or even the next year to improve the economic situation. RAND
The World Bank projected that Iran's economy would shrink in both 2025 and 2026, with annual inflation expected to rise to around 60%. House of Commons Library - Internal contradictions: Iran's leadership now advances two competing narratives — one acknowledging governance failures and blaming foreign actors, creating confusion within state institutions and deepening the gap between the regime and society. Al Jazeera
- Diplomatic isolation: In September 2025, UN sanctions came back into force under the snapback mechanism triggered by the UK, France, and Germany. House of Commons Library
Yet the Regime Retains Its Core Instruments
Despite all this, the regime has not collapsed and shows key signs of endurance:
- Iranian security forces remained loyal to the regime during the 2025–26 protests, with no reports of defections. House of Commons Library
- The endurance of the Islamic Republic amid recurring protests should not be conflated with legitimacy renewal. Stability has been maintained through control, fragmentation, and adaptation rather than consent. Real Instituto Elcano
- The most plausible near-term scenario remains a familiar one: the Iranian regime restores stability through a combination of targeted economic concessions and a violent crackdown designed to deter further protest. RAND
Possibly No Clear Strategy
Iran's leadership is advancing two competing and contradictory narratives, creating confusion within state institutions. Al Jazeera
Khamenei has rejected outright a US offer under which Iran would regain access to foreign currency and stabilize its economy, prioritizing ideology and regime identity over survival. a paralysis that is economic, political, and strategic. Hudson Institute
Meanwhile, the clerical establishment faces mounting pressure, and the lack of credible alternatives within the system restricts its room to manoeuvre. EPC
The Bottom Line
The Islamic Republic at 47 years old is weaker, more isolated, and more internally divided than at any point in its history. A Hudson Institute analyst argued there is no scenario in which the Islamic Republic survives 2026 with its power intact,
though most analysts are more cautious. A full bottom-up overthrow remains unlikely in the short-term EPC
, but Iran's crisis is no longer episodic; it is structural, and the social contract has collapsed for many Iranians. EPC
The regime established in 1979 is genuinely in question, battered from outside, challenged from within, and without a coherent strategy forward. Whether that translates into its end depends heavily on whether the opposition can unify, whether the IRGC stays loyal, and what happens when 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei eventually dies.
Live: US and Israel strike Iran as Trump says action gives Iranians a chance to 'topple their rulers'
https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-crisis-live-explosions-tehran-israel…
- Israel and the US launch strikes on Iran
- President Donald Trump says action will give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers
- Israeli official says Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei targeted
- Khamenei had been transferred to a secure location, a source says
- Iran says it struck Israeli and US bases in the region
- Witnesses heard blasts in the UAE and Qatar
- US and Iran had renewed negotiations and met this week
- Global airlines have cancelled flights across the Middle East
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Live updates: Tehran launches retaliatory strikes as Trump calls for regime change
U.S. President Donald Trump has appealed to the Iranian people to “take over your government.”
https://apnews.com/live/live-updates-israel-iran-february-28-2026
- Why the US and Israel attacked: Tensions have soared in recent weeks as American warships moved into the region, and U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted a deal to constrain Iran’s nuclear program. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, who considers Iran its archenemy, said the joint attack was to “remove an existential threat posed” by Iran.
- Trump’s statement: He indicated the U.S. was striking for reasons far beyond the nuclear program, listing grievances stretching back to the beginning of the Islamic Republic following a revolution in 1979 that turned Iran from one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East into a fierce foe. Read what he said in full.
- Airspaces are closing: Iraq and the United Arab Emirates closed their airspace, and sirens sounded in Jordan. Bahrain said that a missile attack targeted the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters. Explosions could also be heard in Qatar.