Reports they La Niña has died are greatly exaggerated. She’s not dead yet, Niña is not “dead” but she is weak and expected to weaken back to neutral conditions sometime in early 2026.
Here’s what scientists are saying about the current status of La Niña the cool phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
What’s happening now
- La Niña conditions (cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific plus associated atmospheric patterns) are present and a La Niña Advisory has been in effect — meaning those conditions have been observed and are expected to continue.
- However, this event is weak compared with strong La Niña episodes of the past.
- Forecasters expect this weak La Niña pattern to persist through the winter of 2025–26 and then transition back to neutral ENSO conditions by around March – April 2026.
Why people ask “Is La Niña dead?”
In spring 2025, there was a brief period when La Niña conditions in the Pacific weakened into a neutral ENSO state, and some reports at the time said it had “ended” or was “dead.”
But later in late 2025, below-average Pacific temperatures and atmospheric patterns re-established La Niña conditions — though weak — which are now the active state through winter 2025–26.
What “La Niña” actually means
La Niña isn’t a physical thing that lives or dies — it’s a phase of the ENSO climate cycle. It’s defined by:
- Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific, and
- Associated changes in winds and atmospheric circulation.
When those characteristics weaken enough, forecasters call it ENSO-neutral rather than La Niña.
Outlook - Now: La Niña conditions are present but weak.
- Winter 2025–26: La Niña likely continues with modest impacts.
- Spring 2026: Transition to neutral ENSO (no La Niña or El Niño) is forecast as likely.