2022 was A YEAR OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES Perhaps some of them will finally be sorted out in 2023. Maybe not!
I don't have to tell you things are screwed up. You know it.
However, In which direction and at what speed is up to how you interpret data, and what facts do you trust? I suggest that the law of unintended consequences in 2022 profoundly shifted the ideological battles between democracies and authoritarian leadership. The phenomenon was apparent in how the USA dealt with global and national issues.
Four primary events moved American behavior in a positive direction following five years during which political fear and anger dominated national and international political decision-making.
1. CAUSE: Newly appointed conservative Justices put ideology before judicial competence in a rush to abolish the national right to abortion.
1. EFFECT: Millions of younger voters and women across the age and political spectrum were motivated to support a woman's right to decide on personal medical issues. Multiple close election contests favored the more moderate candidates, giving the Democrats continued control of the US Senate while losing the House majority by only five votes. No political party controlling the Presidency had done this well in mid-term elections in a century.
2. CAUSE: A petulant Republican Congressional leadership refused to join a House of Representatives special committee investigating the Jan 6 insurrection that stormed the Capitol trying to deny Joseph Biden his landslide victory.
2. EFFECT: The seven Democrats and two Republicans worked together like a grand jury. Multiple televised hearings connected the dots in emotional and visceral details that few Americans expected. Testimony from former Trump Administration officials ended with the committee referring four criminal counts against Trump to the US Department of Justice for prosecution.
3. CAUSE: Russian president Vladimir Putin misread Global political and emotional reaction to an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February.
3. EFFECT: Validation for President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who had worked in 2021 to rebuild confidence in America. Putin preferred Trump's foreign policy that treated Russia warmly and NATO coolly. NATO responded with direct military aid and sanctions against Oligarchs and Russia's economy, demonstrating new-found global cooperation. China stayed aloof from the conflict, perhaps recognizing that for strategy, tactics, and training, the Russian Army was decades behind NATO armies, not helped by rife corruption in military contracting.
4. CAUSE: Indiscriminate Russian attacks on civilians and non-military targets violated long-agreed-upon rules of warfare. Memories of World War Two were reminders that appeasement never works.
4. EFFECT: Millions of Ukrainians fled to safety, but President Volodymyr Zelensky stayed to rally his nation. The Army used the supplied heavy weapons and tactics to force Russians back towards the border. In a surprise one-day visit, he told the US Congress that the military and humanitarian aid was not charity but an investment against Russian ambitions. Leadership and policy smarts helped President Biden on multiple issues, especially keeping control of the US Senate and getting the government funded through the following year.
LOOKING AHEAD: Multiple issues remain, especially as a divided and confused Republican House majority struggles over who should lead them as House speaker. Immigration, revisions to tax policy, a policy response to inflation, gun control, and mass shooting are among issues waiting for action, where lack of power in the House is an issue for Biden.
A Supreme Court, no longer influenced by its Chief Justice, is willing to shatter precedent in a series of cases hand-picked to enable the majority to undo decades of previously decided law.
Revelations from the transcripts and reports issued by the House Committee regarding the Jan 6 insurrection are startling in revealing how widespread and sycophantic were Republican politicians and many appointees. Issues of truth and honesty don't matter to people who have swapped rational behavior for partisan allegiance.
For example, Republican campaign experts devised the Red Wave strategy to discourage Democratic voters. This writer accurately explained weeks before the election that the Red Wave claims constituted a stratagem, not a reality, based on decades of experience with American politics.
Propagandists understood that traditional nonpartisan pollsters produced polls that primarily reflected reality but conducted far fewer polls than in previous campaigns. Because media organizations usually average ALL polls to suggest a political "horse race." Republican organizations and funders took advantage to pay for disguised partisan polling. The idea was to discourage anti-Trump turnout. In an age where clicks and likes suggest reality, this artificially helped enthusiasm for Republican candidates. This failed!
It has been a year of contrasts and unexpected findings on the political stage. Consider that Zelensky is a TV comedian turned wartime leader. Or Biden, a lifelong elected official, knew how to lead a nation without resorting to fear and anger in a crisis.
Republicans criticize him as "Sleepy Joe," but he is closer to Muhammed Ali's old rope-a-dope boxing style designed to wear out opponents.
With five years of his federal taxes finally disclosed, it is even more apparent that Trump's claim to be a brilliant businessman was a fantasy. If the government successfully prosecutes him for his leading role in the Insurrection, the trials and appeals will be a long and winding road.
The final weeks of 2022 saw America questioning how a high school graduate won a seat in Congress by claiming to be a rich financial wizard. George Santos, a Republican, used a fabricated autobiography and personal charm to win the election in a New York Congressional district just a few miles from where Trump grew up.
The Santos case is prima facie evidence that the political parties can not do a satisfactory job of vetting and choosing candidates. Many jobs in America require special training and passing a test to obtain a license.
Politics is NOT one of them.
By: Kenneth Tiven